I wish I had paid more attention to boring things like monetary policy and economics in general. Not that I´d necessarily feel any more comfortable with the current state of things than I do now, but it might feel like a more educated insecurity, or even a more educated panic.
Like almost everyone else, I imagine, Heitor and I are wrestling with the uncertainties of the US economy. In our case, we are specifically concerned with the value of the US dollar vs. the Brasilean Real and where it is likely to go.
When I first came to Brasil in late 2005, the exchange rate was about R$2.00 = $1.00. On future trips the dollar was a little weaker, but it still bought about 1.9 Reals. I just checked the historical daily exchange rates from July 1, 2008 to today. In that one single year, the rate has swung all the way from R$1.5 to $1.00 all the way to R$2.44 to $1.00 (and about every point in between). For the last couple of weeks it has been about R$1.89 to $1.00.
As dramatic as that one-year range seems, every Brasilean can remember a point in the mid-1990s when the two currencies traded at R$1.00 to $1.00. And as recently as when Lula was first elected in late 2002, the capitalist world panicked and the rate went to R$4 to $1. Both of these extremes are considered by Brasileans to have been semi-disastrous, and there has been a lot of talk recently by government officials and economists about how Brasil would like to see the rate remain at roughly R$2 to $1. But it is a floating exchange rate and, while government monetary policies can apparently have an influence on the rate, they don´t dictate it.
So....can anybody tell me where it will be 6 months from now? Please? Imagine trying to budget for a larger apartment, with a two (or more)-year lease and dealing with such uncertainties.
When I first came to Brasil in late 2005, the exchange rate was about R$2.00 = $1.00. On future trips the dollar was a little weaker, but it still bought about 1.9 Reals. I just checked the historical daily exchange rates from July 1, 2008 to today. In that one single year, the rate has swung all the way from R$1.5 to $1.00 all the way to R$2.44 to $1.00 (and about every point in between). For the last couple of weeks it has been about R$1.89 to $1.00.
As dramatic as that one-year range seems, every Brasilean can remember a point in the mid-1990s when the two currencies traded at R$1.00 to $1.00. And as recently as when Lula was first elected in late 2002, the capitalist world panicked and the rate went to R$4 to $1. Both of these extremes are considered by Brasileans to have been semi-disastrous, and there has been a lot of talk recently by government officials and economists about how Brasil would like to see the rate remain at roughly R$2 to $1. But it is a floating exchange rate and, while government monetary policies can apparently have an influence on the rate, they don´t dictate it.
So....can anybody tell me where it will be 6 months from now? Please? Imagine trying to budget for a larger apartment, with a two (or more)-year lease and dealing with such uncertainties.
3 comments:
I can tell you, my friend, keep your dollars, it's going to blow, it's a 4 year circle, 1998, 2002, 2006, next year!!!
Wish I could be as optimistic. I think the post-WWII US militarism is very close to bankrupting the country. But the big unknown for me is just exactly what "close" means. Apparently I don´t have the courage of my convictions, however, as I am still only transfering as much to Brasil each month as I need to live.
Minha tia lembra com saudades da época em que o dólar e o real eram iguais... That's when she went to NY.
Post a Comment